A simulation of one way the Colorado Rockies' 2015 season can turn out – Purple Row
What does a 2015 Rockies season with a mixed bag of excellent, not so excellent, and middle-of-the-road performances look like?
We know that we don’t know what’s going to happen in 2015. But we have intelligent guesses based on our eyes, ears, memories, and consumption of information. We accept that our guesses might be off, but we can be relatively sure that we’ll come relatively close. If you will, we’ll be able to ballpark it. We also know that computers provide guesses as well. They do so with memories and information, but without eyes and ears. The computers, too, make intelligent guesses. They, too, know that the guesses might be off. And finally, computers also are relatively sure that the guesses will, at the very least, be accurate within a reasonable range—the computers also ballpark it.
This is another article about projections. But it’s not another article about projections. One of the most interesting features of Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system is that it offers (subscribers) a range of projections, from the near worst case scenario 10th percentile projection to the near best case scenario 90th. Most often, you see only the median projection (50th percentile). I’ve written two articles about where players from the 2014 version of the Rockies landed on the scale. Only a few ended up on the extremes of excellence and putridity. While neither computer nor human being truly knows where the 2015 Rockies will settle with regard to the projections, I do know that some players will be in their upper echelon, while others will be in their lower one, and still others will hover around their median.
Below, you’ll find one way the 2015 season might go by way of an extremely rudimentary season simulation. I chose 23 players (eight pitchers, five starters) whom I expect to get a fair amount of playing time in 2015. Then, I wrote their names on a piece of paper and put them in a hat. In another hat, I placed pieces of paper with numbers on them: two each of 90, 80, 10, and 20, and three each from 30 to 70. Paper from hat one then met paper from hat two, and I came up with a season scenario for 2015.
Here is how it turned out.
Which paper players got the dreaded 10th and 20th percentile seasons? It would be lovely if we could just place all of … – Click Here To Visit Article Source