The DC Cannabis Campaign made last minute preparations on Monday for a vote that could make possessing and growing marijuana plants legal in the nation’s capital. (Reuters)

Tomorrow, voters in four states will decide how the next chapter of marijuana reform will be written. If several of the measures pass, it will likely build momentum for a growing public consensus on legalization. On the other hand, if all or most of the measures fail, legalization proponents may need to take a step back and reassess their strategies for legalization efforts already planned for a number of states in 2016.

It took a certain amount of audacity to put marijuana on the ballot in 2014 to begin with. Support for marijuana legalization is heavily concentrated among younger and more liberal voters, while midterm electorates are by definition older and more conservative than those in presidential years. There’s some evidence that marijuana ballot measures bring younger voters to the ballot booth: exit polls show that in Colorado and Washington, young voters made up a larger share of the electorate in 2012 (when marijuana was on the ballot) than in 2008.

On the other hand, an analysis by FiveThirtyEight earlier this year used Current Population Survey data to explore a number of different elections where marijuana was on the ballot and found that differences in young voter turnout were negligible. So it’s unclear whether this year’s ballot measures will bring more young voters to the polls.

Here’s a rundown of where each of the four ballot measures stand.

D.C. – full legalization

Likelihood of passage: high

D.C. voters will choose whether to allow adults 21 and over to legally possess up to two ounces of marijuana, and grow up to six plants. Polling has shown consistently <a class="colorbox" rel="nofollow" …read more