HUFFPOLLSTER: Democrats’ Internal Polls Challenge Colorado Conventional … – Huffington Post
Democrats produce two polls showing their candidate with an edge in the Colorado Senate race. Nearly 2 million Americans have already voted nationwide. And the more you dislike the opposition, the likelier you are to turn out on Election Day. This is HuffPollster for Monday, October 20, 2014.
COLORADO: HIDDEN UDALL EDGE? – With just over two weeks remaining before Election Day 2014, the only new U.S. Senate surveys reported over the weekend were a pair of Colorado polls, sponsored by separate Democratic political action committees, that both give their candidate, Sen. Mark Udall, a narrow, three-point advantage edge over Republican challenger Cory Gardner.
The first, conducted for the Senate Majority PAC by pollster Mark Mellman, finds 44 percent support for Udall and 41 percent Gardner, with 15 percent undecided. The second, conducted by Benenson Strategy Group for Project New America, found half as many undecided voters (7 percent) by a similar advantage for Udall (47 to 44 percent).
The surveys are a departure from other recent polling on the race. Each of the six non-partisan polls released since the beginning of October, including online, live-caller and automated surveys, gives Gardner a lead of between 2 and 6 points. The Pollster model now gives Gardner a nominal edge over Udall, with about a 55 percent chance of winning — currently one of the closest Senate races in the nation.
Polls sponsored by campaigns and partisan organizations typically show a statistical bias favoring their sponsors, usually because these organizations release results selectively, holding back bad news and sharing favorable results. In this case, however, many Democrats argue that they have methodology on their side. The …read more